Updating my earlier post on the Qantas bid, aside from anything else I just hope management don’t trip over themselves or any stray Alinta executives in their rush to take the company private!
The independent expert’s report values the airline anywhere from $5.18 to $5.98 thereby conveniently placing the midpoint 2 cents under the $5.60 bid price. Good work, Grant Samuel & Board. A bit of a wider valuation range than we might have expected at more than 7% either side of the midpoint, but fairly tidy.
Looking back I admit at being slightly amazed just how fast the Directors rolled over and allowed the consortium in with just a 2% (10 cent) increase of their $5.50 original bid (compare it to Coles). Then I read the AFR on Friday February 9 with all the gory details of the success fees coming after another profit upgrade and I really wonder: was anyone looking out for the shareholders in this transaction?
I must point out that I’m not against the deal per se but I think some of the lousy behaviour present in the markets nowadays is clearly evident in this case.
The only real hurdle to success now is the FIRB – due to rule by March 7 – and Peter Costello who can make a ‘national interest’ ruling. For interest, the FIRB have raised no objections to most takeovers in the past few years including Xstrata/MIM, Singapore Telecommunications/Optus, and the BHP/Billiton merger. Famously, the Shell/Woodside deal was knocked back by the Treasurer but I doubt it will happen in this case.
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